COVID-19 Daily Update: Fall Wave Watch

Predictions of Rt in the USA as a whole continue to be below 1 (currently 0.985), meaning that the rate of new cases are decelerating (you can thing of Rt as an estimate of the acceleration): 

Despite this fact, IHME is now predicting over 400,000 deaths by the end of the year, because of a proposed large second wave coming in the fall. But if new cases are currently slowing down, why would they predict that they would rise again in the fall? Other historically more accurate models do not predict this same large second wave.

IHME is predicting that daily deaths will rise between now and November, while COVID-19 Projections predicts that they will fall between now and November 1st. 

The issues revolve around the surprising resistance to second waves that we have already seen in hard hit locations around the world. For example, in the US, the second peak of infections after the lockdowns were eased all happened in locations that were not initially hard hit. 

The reasons for this resistance are unclear. Last week I wrote about this question and some possible explanations.

Which prediction is most accurate this time will largely dictate our future, and how the next few months go. 

This question is everything right now. 

New York:

New York is a prime example of the issue of resistance to second waves. They were hard hit initially, but resisted having a second wave in July. The reason is unclear, even after restrictions eased. Last week I pointed to a small bump in cases in New York, and said that we should watch this bump to make sure it was not the start of a second wave there. 

We now have more data from New York, and the initial bump has gone back down (which is good news), because it means that the resistance to a second wave continues there. This makes the IHME prediction less likely:

However, Rt estimates in New York now put Rt > 1... slightly (1.08): 

So the algorithm does think that infection rates are growing in NY, ever so slightly, but this is well within the uncertainty, and it will take time to tell. 

Europe:

However, data from Europe with regard to the possibility of a second wave is far more concerning. 

Places like France, Spain, and Italy, all hard hit initially, are all seeing a strong second wave now: 

All of these places were initially very hard hit. Nevertheless, they have not resisted a second wave in the same way that New York has. 

This is not good news, and it makes the IHME model's predictions more likely. 

The reason that infections in New York are behaving so differently from what we are seeing in Europe are not something I understand yet, and it will take time to see what happens next. 

Again, the answer to this question is all that really matters right now when it comes to what the next few months are going to be like here. 

This is what we now need to watch. 

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